Difference between revisions of "Chem321:Discussion 9"
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| − | In its predictions for the next 30 years, the US Energy Information Administration '''[http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/assumptions/pdf/international.pdf predicts]''' that by 2035 the crude oil price will be in the range $50-200 per barrel, with the most likely scenario predicting around $125 per barrel (2009 dollars). Likewise, the '''[http://ec.europa.eu/energy/observatory/trends_2030/doc/trends_to_2030_update_2009.pdf European Union predicts]''' a price of $106 per barrel by 2030 (2008 dollars). (For comparison, oil prices have been in the range $80-110 during 2012, and are [http://www.oil-price.net/ currently around $80]). Natural gas prices are also expected to hold fairly steady, and become slightly more competitive with oil. Some experts concur with this opinion, as [http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/economic-intelligence/2012/02/29/has-the-peak-oil-tipping-point-arrived here], but others [http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v481/n7382/full/481433a.html disagree] (see [http://www.alaskadispatch.com/article/oil-tipping-point-has-passed-much-higher-prices-come this summary]). The " | + | In its predictions for the next 30 years, the US Energy Information Administration '''[http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/assumptions/pdf/international.pdf predicts]''' that by 2035 the crude oil price will be in the range $50-200 per barrel, with the most likely scenario predicting around $125 per barrel (2009 dollars). Likewise, the '''[http://ec.europa.eu/energy/observatory/trends_2030/doc/trends_to_2030_update_2009.pdf European Union predicts]''' a price of $106 per barrel by 2030 (2008 dollars). (For comparison, oil prices have been in the range $80-110 during 2012, and are [http://www.oil-price.net/ currently around $80]). Natural gas prices are also expected to hold fairly steady, and become slightly more competitive with oil. Some experts concur with this opinion, as [http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/economic-intelligence/2012/02/29/has-the-peak-oil-tipping-point-arrived here], but others [http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v481/n7382/full/481433a.html disagree] (see [http://www.alaskadispatch.com/article/oil-tipping-point-has-passed-much-higher-prices-come this summary]). The "tipping point" advocates argue that supply is leveling off at around 75 million barrels per day at a time *crude oil and lease condensate only) when consumption in [[http://www.indexmundi.com/energy.aspx?country=cn&product=oil&graph=consumption China] and [http://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?c=in&v=91 India] is soaring. Some argue that new cheap reserves have been found, but others [http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2012/07/24/1094111/is-peak-oil-dead/ question these assumptions]. |
Other factors to consider: | Other factors to consider: | ||
# As prices rise shale oil from Canada and elsewhere may become competitive and serve as a buffer and keep prices down. | # As prices rise shale oil from Canada and elsewhere may become competitive and serve as a buffer and keep prices down. | ||
| − | # If significant | + | # If significant efforts are made to avoid climate change and invest are made in renewable energy resources, this may reduce demand for oil in some countries, to offset the rise in other countries. |
# Because of the current poor state of the world's economy, demand for oil has drawn back a little (even in China, for the first time in many years), and this will tend to keep prices down in the short term. | # Because of the current poor state of the world's economy, demand for oil has drawn back a little (even in China, for the first time in many years), and this will tend to keep prices down in the short term. | ||
Revision as of 12:33, 26 July 2012
In its predictions for the next 30 years, the US Energy Information Administration predicts that by 2035 the crude oil price will be in the range $50-200 per barrel, with the most likely scenario predicting around $125 per barrel (2009 dollars). Likewise, the European Union predicts a price of $106 per barrel by 2030 (2008 dollars). (For comparison, oil prices have been in the range $80-110 during 2012, and are currently around $80). Natural gas prices are also expected to hold fairly steady, and become slightly more competitive with oil. Some experts concur with this opinion, as here, but others disagree (see this summary). The "tipping point" advocates argue that supply is leveling off at around 75 million barrels per day at a time *crude oil and lease condensate only) when consumption in [China and India is soaring. Some argue that new cheap reserves have been found, but others question these assumptions.
Other factors to consider:
- As prices rise shale oil from Canada and elsewhere may become competitive and serve as a buffer and keep prices down.
- If significant efforts are made to avoid climate change and invest are made in renewable energy resources, this may reduce demand for oil in some countries, to offset the rise in other countries.
- Because of the current poor state of the world's economy, demand for oil has drawn back a little (even in China, for the first time in many years), and this will tend to keep prices down in the short term.
Which scenario do you believe is more realistic, and why?
