Chem395:March 14 discussion

Fuels for the future?

• In Dorf, page 230, it states that: "the global consumption of fossil fuels is likely to increase throughout the 21st century," and "the world's use of fossil fuels will most likely peak at some time during the next 200 years."
• According to US government predictions, we can expect to see the following growth in the US by 2030:

• Petroleum use will grow from 40 quads/year to 44 quads/year.
• 'Natural gas consumption will grow from 22 quads to 24 quads/year
• Coal use will grow from 23 to 30 quads/year.

Is this a reasonable scenario? If not, is it low or high? How will this affect the US contribution to climate change?

Lester Brown, in "Eco-Economy," believes that the US government has got it all wrong. "In addition to world coal use peaking in 1996, oil production is expected to peak either in this decade or the next. Natural gas use will keep expanding..."

Who is right here?